What mathematical principle do insurance companies utilize to predict potential losses in a group?

Insurance companies primarily rely on the law of large numbers to predict potential losses within a group. This principle states that as the number of exposures or events increases, the actual results will converge on the expected results. In insurance, this means that the more policyholders an insurer has, the more accurately they can predict the total amount of claims they will need to pay out.

By gathering a large and diverse pool of insured individuals, insurers can use statistical methods to estimate future claims based on historical data. This helps them to set premiums appropriately and ensures they have sufficient funds to cover losses. This principle minimizes the impact of random fluctuations or anomalies that can occur with smaller groups, leading to more stable and predictable financial outcomes for the insurance provider.